Bryan went on to say, "I don't think that anyone could have anticipated what happened. And it really has little to do with the RV industry. It's the entire economy. The financial uncertainly is causing people to not buy anything. People are reluctant even to buy a loaf of bread."
He is correct that the situation has more to do with the overall economic collapse than with the RV industry itself, but he is absolutely wrong about being able to anticipate what happened. If RVIA had been reading my blog and paying attention to independent RV industry analysis's they would have clearly seen it coming back in 2007 and before.
Concerning RVIA's January strategic planning session he said, "There was a general consensus that the market will improve in the last half of 2009 and that 2010 will be a growth year. But we are looking at the future through cloudy glasses. It's frustrating because it's difficult to see down the road."
Allow me to help you with your vision problem: THERE WILL BE NO RV INDUSTRY RECOVERY IN 2009! In fact, there won't even be a recovery in 2010 or 2011. Let me repeat myself so new readers will have a reference point. There will only be a hand-full of RV manufacturers left when this economic depression is over. Will Americans still enjoy Rving? Certainly! There are thousands of great used RVs that will be useful until the economy picks up again. Is this a great country and will we survive this economic crisis? Absolutely! But, let's lay aside the happy spin that there's a recovery around the next corner. Let's be honest and admit we have a long and protracted journey ahead. There are no easy answers and certainly no “quick fixes.” This depression is going to last a lot longer than current thinking is projecting. The RV industry that emerges on the other side of this crisis will be much different than what it was in the past.
What are my projections for the next RV manufacturers to fall? Country Coach, Monaco and Fleetwood with a few smaller companies thrown in the mix along the way. I'll keep you posted as the drama unfolds.If you're wondering how I know all this stuff and am able to make such accurate predictions, its quite elementary. I'm in the field, I visit the factories, interview vendors and RV workers and I talk to real RVers each and every day.
I'm not in the board-room, I'm on the scene. When you travel across America in an RV, you meet a lot of people and learn what is happening in each community you visit. It's not hard to put together a view of the future when you do this. Perhaps RV industry executives should get out of their offices and rub shoulders with ordinary RVers for a change.Keeping your windshield clean so you can see the warning signs coming down the road – Jim Twamley, Professor of RVing
Source: RV Business “RVIA's Bryan: Last Year Waylaid by 'Dismal' 4Q” by Bob Ashley
The Professor does not hold financial positions in the companies mentioned above.
12 comments:
It's a very sad time in this country. Maybe checks, balances and laser smart regulations make sense after all.
As for the RV industry ... We went full time in 2007 and have lowered our cost of living significantly while increasing our quality of life. Maybe there is a marketing and educational opportunity to be explored.
How can Country Coach justify the Veranda Behomoth. Did they now foresee the economic downturn which is now over a year old. I wonder how many Congress people who did not foresee our economic downturn are involved with Country Coach Planning
I have a Country Coach Conversion Prevost Bus (Older model) and have relied heavily on Tech Support from Country Coach and they have responded very well, till recently. Now in "Reorganization" I wonder will they survive. Then, I see their latest "White Whale" the Motorhome that has a Veranda! Who in their product developement line ever got this idea through to production! Talk about planning out of the loop.
I totally agree with you on the time frame for a 'recovery". People who think this will end in 2010 or 2011 are "happy face people" who have their head in the sand. I left real estate in 2008 because I saw the beginning of the end coming, and boy did I make a good move! I also moved my small savings from the stock market to CD's. Another lucky move. it's sad really. as we travel across the country we see businesses closing, homes in foreclosure, etc. People are scared and until that fear goes away it's going to get worse. And THAT is MY 2¢!
My apologies to you, Jim - and to Chuck Woodbury. I have commented before on your negativity about this industry and felt that you weren't doing the industry any good by espousing doom and gloom in each newsletter. I was wrong. You two were and are correct. This industry is in a dive that it will not recover from for a very long time - and then, it will be very different. I bought an expensive Country Coach back in May (my second one) and am now left with no warranty and no manufacturer. I should have heeded your message.
I agree with the above. I just love (not really) walking into a high end 40'-45'coach and you see a "2 burner stove." How about a MSRP of over $500K and they put a camper shell bathroom sink in it? And then you have my favorite sales pitch -- "it sleeps 6." Really? And when was the last time a retired couple asked 4 more people to join them in retirement on their coach? These designers do indeed need to "get out" and mix with the natives.
After reading your earlier blog on the "Good, Bad and Ugly" and reading the comments attacking you, I copied and pasted the blog and some of the comments into a Word doc and dated it. My guess was at that time, that you were right and I wanted to be able to pull that document back up and give you praise for your "educated prediction".
Well, here is your praise! GOOD FOR YOU JIM TWAMLEY - MAY YOU HAVE LONG LIFE WHILE CONTINUING TO INFORM US OF THE TRUTH ABOUT RVING.
One thing I need to add, as if everyone didn't already know, ALL of the manufacturers better start building higher quality RVs and pull campers instead high volume crap, or they will be out of business for reasons other than just the economy.
Take care Jim, and keep right on writing.
Fred in Texas
Sure do agree with all the comments. However, one thing that has not been mentioned and that is the problem when people lose jobs, have no money and are hungry. Next step is petty crime and campgrounds and out in the boondocks are perfect places for campers to get robbed. Be careful out there and you might consider keeping yourself armed.
Safe travels
Jerry, Wisconsin
We are READY and willing to spend our money on a class B van RV. However, we are not able to find any discounts anywhere on this particular kind of RV. So it must not be too bad for the folks at Pleasure Way, Roadtrek, etc.
I bought a Provan Tiger XL back in 2000. The 17-footer C-type on a Chevy Astro chassis looked pretty silly when parked beside the 35-foot plus rigs. Doesn't look so silly now and Provan is still in business. Almost every day someone asks where can they get one. RVing in the U.S. is going to look a lot like RVing in Europe.
Joe in Ontario
I remember reading your "Doom and Gloom" blog several months ago, and was struck by the vehemence of those commenting on your predictions. What a difference a few months make! Although I'm not happy about the accuracy of your predictions, I must congratulate you on your insight. The CEOs and production designers, do indeed need to leave the boardroom and the factories to see what is really going on out there and what RVers want and need. Thanks again Jim!
I had to trade my TT in Nov '06 due to unemployment. when I bought my car, I talked with the VP of the local dealer where I traded and he said he wished that they didn't deal in RVs. He said, "They're all garbage - even the expensive ones." He was pretty much on target. I plan to get a basic, used, conversion van, take out the middle seat(s), use the back seat for a bed and take my camping gear. I will add a small, inexpensive house A/C, a portable generator, portable heater, my porta potty, sleeping bag, and I will have a "motorhome". I can get a decent used conversion van for $8,000 or less. It will not have a leaking rubber roof or leaking windows. It will not have black streaks. It will not have expensive tires. I can park it on the street. Many benefits. I've been RVing for a long time - I see the downside of RVs as well as the good side. I'm ready to "downsize".
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