The dealer attendance was even worse and are you surprised? After all, we’ve lost so many RV manufacturers and dealers this year I’ve lost count.
I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I know a trend when I see one. With the big three automakers up against the wall and begging congress for a bailout is it any wonder discretionary spending categories like boats and RVs have fallen off a cliff? The present RV industry is a dinosaur destined for extinction.
If you believe the RV market is going to turn around any time soon you’re from another planet. The fact is we will continue to see more RV manufactures, RV parks, RV dealers and RV related businesses tank in 2009. Call me a wet blanket or call me a pessimist, in fact you can call me anything you want, but it doesn’t change the facts. The RV industry is dying and I’m writing the obituary now.You’ll hear pundits say things like, “The RV industry has gone through tough times before and we survived and we’ll survive it this time as well.” I have some advice for the pundits, “Go see a psychiatrist while you still have health insurance because you’re living in a fantasy world.”
The RV industry as we know it will not recover this time. If the largest U.S. auto makers can’t make it without you and me giving them a monster loan through our taxes, then what makes the pundits think the RV industry is going to survive?
Every CEO in the RV industry knows the end is near. They’re fearful and doing desperate things like quietly looking for buyers like Coachmen successfully did last month. They’re trying to fend off bankruptcy by negotiating with their investors while not being able to make interest payments on their loans like the manufacturer Fleetwood and the largest Florida RV dealer Lazydays.
Seriously, this time next year you’ll be saying, “The Professor of RVing was right, the RV industry really did tank…I wish I would have listened to him and had that warranty work done while my dealer was still in business.”
Thinking about joining one of those RV park membership systems? I would think twice before I committed any money into that sink hole.
Thinking about purchasing a new RV? Do yourself a favor and buy a quality used RV instead because it is likely that most of the warranty work has already been done and the majority of the bugs worked out.
If you insist on purchasing a new RV subtract at least 40% off the already marked down price. If they don’t want to deal, give them your phone number and tell them to call you when they get serious and walk off the lot. You might as well get the best price you can because you’re not going to be able to get any warranty work done after they’ve gone out of business. Better yet, wait until the bankruptcy court appointed trustee holds an auction and sells the same RV for pennies on the dollar.
The main stream media has fallen down on the job of reporting the facts that we are entering the most serious global depression in history. Just this week we learned the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007. You didn’t have to wait for the mainstream media to tell you the RV industry was in trouble because I told you back on December 2nd, 2007 in the article entitled, “RV industry in financial crisis.” Now I’m making another prediction: The next few years will be the worst catastrophe in economic history and the RV industry will not be spared. The worst part of our current economic crisis is yet to come!
I caught a lot of flack from my December article but it turned out to be true. I suppose I’ll catch even more flack from this article, but as a journalist covering the RV beat I would be professionally negligent if I did not tell the truth and report the facts as they emerge.
This coming year our world will be shaken to the core and it will never again be the same. I doubt there will even be a National RV Trade Show in 2009 and if it does happen it will be a much smaller event, unrecognizable from its former grandeur.
Jim Twamley, Professor of RVing
RVs for SaleMotorhomes, Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels, Truck Campers, Pop ups and much more. See the big selection at NewRVer.com. Click here
79 comments:
You're so right! Bible prophecy coming true right before our eyes.
Don't you think the RV parks that have decent rates and reasonable service will mostly do OK? I plan to go to the Northwest states next summer, and I will be looking for campsites, dumpstations, etc. I will not stay home - this is something I've worked over 40 years for, and I'm "On the Road Again" next spring.
It is a scary thought all the way around, but I am afraid you are much more right then we all would like to believe. We have a 15 ft Aliner Cabin A and we love it. Right now it is for fun, but may end up a real home for us. I paid for it all at once so it is mine, thank goodness. Our funds are limited and if my SSD holds out at least that will be a definite income. My husband drives for a small tour bus company that does a lot of school transportation so he is working, not much but some. I don't buy clothes, or shoes or get my hair and nails done, so I don't have to worry about cutting back on that. I spend on groceries and try to be as economical as I can. I can cut back on that if I have too, which may happen. We are all going to have to change our ways and habits to survive
Agree the economy will be seriously hurting for some time with only the saving grace for rvers being the rapidly falling gas prices. Who mknows how long or how permanent that will be. The really quality manufacturers will survive but with a reduced product line. I don't fully agree only the wealthy will be buying big motorhomes and fivers. A big motorhome does not have to cost 300K and up as there are many out there starting in the low hundreds. However the manufacturers and dealers have to be willing to operate on lower margins. The economy will not support 30 - 40% margins for many years. And the manufacturers absolutely have to significantly improve their quality. Having been a RVer for many years and a former director of quality for a Fortune 100 manufacturer I have always considered many rv builders almost criminal for what seems like complete disregard forproper quality workmanship and material standards. And customer service is almost non-existent at times. The manufacturing industry has a term "latent defect" that refers to quality problems that are maker caused, either through faulty design or workmanship. It is this type of defect that is a plague of the rv industry. Most manufacturers will ignore warranty time limits (within reason)for this class of defect. But RV many/most manufacturers use these time limits as excuses. They play the game of risk assessment They know a latent defect exists but if it will not show up until after the warranty expires then don't worry about it. Sound familiar? A bit like Detroit operated for years and years.
The RV industry wil certainly have to change and its just a shame that it has taken chaos to bring that change about.
you are an idiot. You're the same as the people that said gas will be $8/ gal. History repeats itself, it will come back. Try educating yourself. Although, most people are entertained by idiots like you
I agree with Doug. . I am essentially an optimist – I see lots of opportunity right now, with the news media trying to sell us on how bad off we are. There is always time to moan and groan, and very little time to actually relax and enjoy the ride. We just got a great deal on our coach (our fourth), and we fully intend to use it to the fullest. This guy has not factored in the crash of gas prices, which makes our RV’ing cost about 30% of our trips the last two summers. Or to put it another way, my gas mileage just went from 8 mpg to nearly 20! The market for new RV’ers may be weak, but us seasoned players will see that this could be the best combination of buying opportunity and low travel cost since the 60's. Join us on the road this spring and summer – it should be a great year!
RV industry dead? What does that mean? No campgrounds at all? No manufacturers at all, ever again? Many RVers are retirees with pension incomes. I'm still RVing and maintaining my old (read, paid-for) Class A. The sky is not falling, and Judy, hey-soos is not coming.
I think that there will be a surge in RV "use" until gas prices go back up (and they will). With that there may be a shortage of spaces due to closed parks, but when gas prices go back up there will be plenty of spaces, and then there's always WalMart.
I will be hitting the road in my (20 MPG, eat your heart out) Toyota Sunrader in the spring and I don't anticipate any problems because I think that gas will be back to at least $3.00 a gallon by then, putting the 8 mpg dinosaurs back to driveway duty.
I live 4 miles from Fleetwoods main site in Riverside, CA and they have been cutting back for at last the past 4 years. I have a lot of friends that, after 20 or more years, are now former Fleetwood employees. Everyone at Rage'n trailers, just 3 blocks away, was sent home 3 months ago and they had a bankruptcy auction last week.
I don't see how any of the current mfgs. can survive, they just don't have the money in the bank to last through the dry spell until: a) money is available and b) they develop fuel efficient units.
I spent most of September in France and England. They have the answer, smaller, fuel efficient RV's that U.S. builders should have, but didn't, emulate.
All class "A" motorhomes are hereby summoned to go to Branson, MO, to join the rest of the dinosaurs.
Sunrader Bob, Riverside, CA
I'm sorry to say that I have to agree with you, the worst of this mess is yet to come and it will be many years before we get back to a "new" normal. The RV industry as we know it now, is toast.
This type of article contributes to the economic contraction. When people are afraid of the future they cut back on spending. At least one RV manufacturer is still making a profit- Dodgen Industries in Humboldt IA. In the Fall 2008 newsletter Mr Dodgen reported a small profit for the year as of the end of their third quarter. Their Born Free motorhomes are well-built, small Class C's. If the world economies collapse as you predict, the RV industry will not be the only one which is forever changed. I predict some RV manufactureres will survive and Americans will continue to enjoy traveling. While the gas prices are low, RV owners may actually increase their usage.
I think you can be right and wrong all at the same time. I agree that the worst in the economic world is yet to come. However, having said that I believe that we will see a strange thing happen. People who loose their homes may very well start living in RV's. Membership parks may actually flourish. As for the manufacturers, some will make it and most won't but there will be survivors. I don't think that the days of the large RV are over, just prhaps delayed a bit.
Yep, the RV industry is in bad straits but so is everything else. Enough gloom and doom, I can get that by turning on my TV set. Lots of RVers are retired and have secure retirement funds, they will RV and buy but on a smaller scale. The caption to this story was something like "the gloomiest report yet". Can the negative and do some positive.
Jim-
I agree with you that the RV industry, as we know it, is probably going to disappear but it'll be back, just in a different, leaner form. Every time people have bet against the American economy, they've lost. Give this thing some time to shake itself out. This is not the end of the world and the Bible has nothing to do with this problem unless people think God has invested in RV stock recently.
In the 1850s the pundits predicted that in 100 years (1950) the world would be covered with a ten foot layer of horse manure. Well, figuratively, it is now, but the automobile put the horse manure business out of business. The RV industry will change, but the future will hold many completely unforseen events.
I agree with Doug, some of us will keep going regardless. Also there is a large segment of people that travel on business, construction and nursing come to mind, and I see a lot of who live in RV's and move north and south according to the season. Still others make permanent homes in RV parks. So the business will continue, just not as robustly as in the past. Lets not write off all RV makers so soon. tmarv99504
The economy does not travel in a linear fashion. The RV industry, along with the automobile industry, was eviscerated during the 1973-1974 AOPEC oil embargo.
However, as petroleum markets began to return to "normal", those companies that were strong and resilient, helped to participate in the next 30 years of prosperity.
We have gone from petroleum at $147 per barrel to $42 per barrel in a matter of months. Credit industry challenges have locked up the markets. Panic ensues.
This too, will pass. As the smoke clears there will be survivors. There will be new, more frugal recreational vehicles. The sun will come out tomorrow.
You are so right. However those of us that are already 'on-the-road' will continue to do so. But if the fuel prices rise again there will be many of us that "stay put".
I truly beleive that the worst is yet to come, it has to get worse before it gets better. As for the BIG 3 no bailout. They burn money like gasoline.
I would hate the thought of staying home year round. I worked many years and planned for as many to spend my retirement traveling in my motor home. After many years of having travel trailers I purchased my first motor home in 1999 and started traveling when I could. I retired in 2004 and have traveled every state in the union and most of them more than once. I'mnow on my forth class A and I would hate to give it up.
I think Jim has been right from the "get-go". The economy is totally out of control and will not be able to support the higher end industries of boating, RV-living, among others. My husband is retired from GM and we are very knowledgable about the dire state of the auto indutry and the ramifications it will have on the country no matter what happens. It is not a pretty picture and in fact is downright scary. We are full-timers and thought we would be living our dream for a long time. Now we have no idea what will happen and feel like we are in limbo. I am not only scared I am very angry at this present administation for letting the unregulated bank and credit industry run amok, deal in Ponzi schemes, and let the rich get richer while the little guy pays as usual. It will only get worse before it gets better and the RV industry will not be around when it is said and done.
I think Jim has been right from the "get-go". The economy is totally out of control and will not be able to support the higher end industries of boating, RV-living, among others. My husband is retired from GM and we are very knowledgable about the dire state of the auto indutry and the ramifications it will have on the country no matter what happens. It is not a pretty picture and in fact is downright scary. We are full-timers and thought we would be living our dream for a long time. Now we have no idea what will happen and feel like we are in limbo. I am not only scared I am very angry at this present administation for letting the unregulated bank and credit industry run amok, deal in Ponzi schemes, and let the rich get richer while the little guy pays as usual. It will only get worse before it gets better and the RV industry will not be around when it is said and done.
I think Jim has been right from the "get-go". The economy is totally out of control and will not be able to support the higher end industries of boating, RV-living, among others. My husband is retired from GM and we are very knowledgable about the dire state of the auto indutry and the ramifications it will have on the country no matter what happens. It is not a pretty picture and in fact is downright scary. We are full-timers and thought we would be living our dream for a long time. Now we have no idea what will happen and feel like we are in limbo. I am not only scared I am very angry at this present administation for letting the unregulated bank and credit industry run amok, deal in Ponzi schemes, and let the rich get richer while the little guy pays as usual. It will only get worse before it gets better and the RV industry will not be around when it is said and done.
Couldn't agree more with your article. In tough economic times it comes down to luxuries vs necessities. As baby boomers my wife and I were able to retire and begin enjoying the good life of RVing before this economic mess. I do feel bad for those who were looking forward to owning a luxury item such as an RV and now will be fighting for survival working beyond their expected retirement.
I'm afraid you are mostly correct in your assessment of the rv industry, however, a few,(at least two), of the smartest manufactures will remain. There will always be a demand for campgrounds, although I'm sure many of them will fold. The trip to Alaska I didn't take this year because of gas prices is now a reality in 2009. 70 year old part timer. Al in colorado.
Couldn't agree more with your article. In tough economic times it comes down to luxuries vs necessities. As baby boomers my wife and I were able to retire and begin enjoying the good life of RVing before this economic mess. I do feel bad for those who were looking forward to owning a luxury item such as an RV and now will be fighting for survival working beyond their expected retirement.
Don't confuse manufacturers of RV's with the industry as a whole. I travel with a camper and have seen all of the 7-8campgrounds I frequent remain busy and upbeat. People love to camp and the recession will ultimately drive more people to do so as it is refreshing for the soul and inexpensive.
There is a glut of RV's on the market right now, just like with cars. The weak manufacturers will disappear, however, the equipment, buildings, trained workforces, and ideas remain. New blood will buy up the assets and come up with new and better ideas just as the current inventory of RV's start rotting and people start looking for new ones.
If it is your wish to lament the changes that are beyond the ability of any of us to control, that is your choice. But, my advice is to look to the future and start reporting on the seeds that will sprout from the compost of this recession - which can lead to an even more wonderful future for us all.
Chicken Little Lives!
I think that just like all the other news medias, you are jumping on the negative side so that more people will read you. At the start of the Iraq war we were given repeated information about why we should go to war,now the big "news" is the economy and how bad it is. I was just on a 6 week trip through Ok., Ar., Tn. and Mo. Two of the parks that I was in were so full that I had to move my rig to stay extra days. The majority of the other parks were at least 50% full and this trip was taken in October. For Thanksgiving, we spent 4 days in a Colorado State Park which had, seasonally, closed the majority of the camping circles and found about 50 other campers. Instead of going for the easy story of negativism, why not dig down and find the positives that are out there and report on those so people might become more involved in our industry and enjoy themselves on the road. An expert such as yourself describing the glass as half full would be much more enjoyable to read.
You and people like you are the ones destroying this economy with all your negative thoughts. I have been reading your columns for some time now and you are wrong on most things you write about. Having been an RVer for 40 years I feel that the advice you give is from someone who does not know much about RVing or the American people. I think you need to look at life from a better angle. It is not all doom and gloom. We have been through worse than this and came out OK.
Get off your soap box and join the rest of us here in the greatest country the world has ever known.
Although I agree with your assessments of the industry in general, I feel the obituary might be a little pre-mature. In tough economic times like these, the benchmark of success is survival. This is when the cream rises to the top. Witness the auto industry....while the big three are hat in hand in Washington asking for bailouts, companies like Honda and Toyota are opening new plants in the US and Canada. These companies have been building products that reflect the needs of consumers for some time now. Will Americans abandon the RV lifestyle entirely? I don't think so. I sure won't. If this logic is sound, it should also apply to the boating industry; there are a lot of similarities between boats and RVs. They are both depreciating assets, they are both discretionary luxury items, and when it comes to power boats, they both guzzle gas.In tough economic times the toys go first; but as the economy recovers, people spend again. I think we will see some profound changes to the RV industry over the next couple of years, but I think these changes will be positive for consumers. Let's not forget about the baby-boomer bubble and all the wealth they control. There are people with money out there.....lots of them. The biggest tragedy of the current financial downturn is that it creates a definite barrier to entry for young families and the average Joe. The RVIA continues to point out that the cost of an RV vacation is still cheaper than a traditional vacation staying in hotels and eating out. They're probably right. The point everyone seems to missing is that RVing is a lifestyle......once you've done it, you're hooked. With all the dooming and glooming we hear every day in the media, it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. RVers I have talked to have no intention of throwing in the towel.....they simply adapt. Shorter trips, longer stays, less meals out, driving slower to improve mileage......where there's a will, there's a way.
And one final comment about buying American. The RV industry is one of the few remaining industries that is home grown. While Walmart continues to chalk up profits selling inferior "Made in China" products and it's impossible to buy a pair of American made running shoes, we continue to be the authors of our own demise. We vote with our wallets. There is a great opportunity for the smart agile players in the RV industry (yes, they're out there) to use these tough times to gain market share and build quality products that will appeal to today's market. I agree with Jim that it's the end of an era, but to paraphrase Mark Twain, the rumors of the RV industry's death have been greatly exaggerated.
Rob Engman
RVTV
to think the world is going to hell in a hand basket is a bit to much. I do agree that the Rv industry as we know it, is over.
I also agree that the world economy will get worse, before we see any improvement
With that said, I believe the RV industry will re-invent itself much like the European market model.
Larry of S. Cal.
Owner of a diesel Pleasure-way
Lets not jump to the obit page just yet. Remember last summer when everyone said, "We'll never see gas under $3.00 a gallon again". I said, "We'll never see gas for under $2.00 a gallon again." Well.... we were ALL wrong. Things change so incredibley fast now and prices seem to move with no rhyme or reason. If our economy is not in its death throes, the housing, stock, auto and yes RV markets will recover.
Carolyn Miller
What ever happened to those who profess to be reporting the "news" demonstrating an unbiased view and reporting all the points of view. I belive this one sided report is a dis-service to everyone and certainly doesn't entice me to return to read future reports. I agree with the depression we are going to see some losses in the industry, but I also see some good coming from the loss of the weak and improvements of those able to survive. This is a time the stronger manufacturers will retool, redesign and develop new systems and approaches to make their companies and the industry smarter, stronger and more capable of surviving in the future.
You know we've hit the bottom of the recession. You can tell because everyone's negative. Watch the market rally from here. Yes, even the RV market will rally. This recession is a piece of cake compared even to the Carter years when interest rates were 22%. That killed a lot of RV dealers and manufacturers and other businesses too. But my Dad and I started a business during those years and were successful. Buck up people. Where's your self-reliance? If somebody won't give you a job then make one for yourself. Or have we forgotten how to work in this country we've had it so easy for so long? We don't know what tough is. Don't buy into the media hype. This is not a Depression. Where are the breadlines? Unemployment was 33% during the depression. My accountant grandfather pumped gas for $25 a week because it was the only work he could get. My dad was raised in a tarpaper shack with outdoor plumbing. Now that's a Depression. Unemployment is what 6.5% now? Quit living in fear. I'm ashamed of my countrymen for becoming such a bunch of whining weanies. I think our lack of faith in God has made cowards of us. The wicked man flees though no one pursues, but the righteous are as bold as a lion. Prov. 28:1 Jesus is Lord whether you like it or not Cecil.
You are totally correct. Most of the RV manufacturers are stuck in their old manufacturing roots. Let's face it, many of them have little or no engineering capability much less product planning expertise. Few of the well know names will survive.
Bob de Kruyff
I believe you are right. Only the highest quality and customer oriented manufacturers should survive.
But, that may not happen. We will be just as gullible for making stupid purchases next year and the next year as we are now.
I have saved your blog into a Word document. I have marked my calendar to alert me to re-read it one year from now. You will hear from me at that time.
Keep up the good blogs.
Gas WILL be $8 a gallon. Oil is a commodity and so it fluctuates, but in the long term, it can only get a lot more expensive. Enjoy the cheap fuel now. It may never happen again. The oil that's cheap to pump out of the ground is gone. What's left is scarcer and more expensive to produce. This isn't a conclusion based on rocket science.
Nobody who really pays attention to what is happening to financial markets worldwide can come to any conclusion other than this author's. The rest of you have your heads in the sand. Or worse. It may be worse than the Great Depression. It may be not as bad. But it will be Bad, with a capital B. In fact, it already is, although it's not as bad as it will get. Pray and read the bible if it makes you feel better. But if you're not scared by now, you're a fool.
The RV industry concentrated on bigger and bigger and bigger with more options. People used them more as a status symbol the for RV'ing. RV'ing wil come back when a resonablly priced, high quality, downsized unit is built.
I am really happy I downsized to a 17' Casita travel trailer in 2006 as I am still able to travel at 16 MPG when towing it. If some of the RV parks go out of business I can still get it into state or national parks. On a 23 day trip to Branso, MO last month we saw a lot more small rigs on the road than in previous years.
The recent drop in fuel prices will be short lived. Anyone thinking we will have cheap fuel for very long are mistaken. The world recession has taken pressure off from oil temporarily but world demand will continue to rise and once again in short order fuel will move sharply higher again.
NOTHING NEW HERE! this has happened before, only there was no internet to "profess" doom and gloom.
What was the Jellystone park that closed, my bet is that it was not very highly rated and deserved to die.
When the rest of the world is going to hell in a handbasket, they turn to the most stable government on earth, USA. The dollar is strengthening every day, oil is tied to the dollar, so oil drops in price. Tankers are floating all over the world unable to unload their cargo. The sheiks and Donald Trump are drowning in their glorified heaven on earth in Dubai, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2jrSPqYhVzY&refer=exclusive
Our government is shoveling so much money out the door, the next thing the new government will do is dump it out of helicopters.
Inflation will be rampant and $200,000 motorhomes will seem cheap compared to the same inflated cost of $500,000 in a couple of years.
In a couple of years these will be the good old days.
Dave
Yes, the industry is contracting. But, I will contend that the RV industry was extremely overbuilding for several years. That things came to such an abrupt halt, instead of a more gradual downturn is a factor that made the result more traumatic. We have a 35 foot Seabreeze LX. Love it, use it whenver we can. Will continue to do so. We have friends who are looking at motorhomes. They continue to do so. Surprisingly, their requirements for what they want haven't changed based on fuel costs, but probable use changes. They, and we, assume fuel costs as part of the ownership and adjust accordingly. That seems to me to be true for nearly everyone I've talked to recently. Pragmatic, sensible, and recognizing problems as potential opportunities going forward. Adaptation and change are integral, this is just a greater change of situation than normal.
I don't believe the RV industry is going to disappear. It certainly should change so that new RVs are more fuel-efficient.
We have a 34' Damon Intruder and love it. We bought a large RV because we were intending to cross the country with our four dogs and family. Also, my husband is a big man and wouldn't be comfortable in a smaller RV.
We haven't used it much this year, but when I had some repairs done recently, the repairman said his company is busier than ever due to the fact that so many Boomers are selling their homes and going full-time in RVs.
I agree with some of the negative thoughts in the article, but I think there will also be a silver lining: more efficient coaches, better quality RVs. (OK, I'm an optimist)
Cathy
I myself purchased a new RV from a company that went under in September. However, I don't have the same long term pessimistic view of all this. Eventually the economy will turn around and when it does, there are a massive number of baby boomers who are not going to be content sitting on their rear ends, or working in Wal Mart and Home Depot.
The one unfortunate thing is that this is killing quality manufacturers as well. Case in Point: Snow River & Bigfoot.
The drop in fuel prices is once again making it cheaper for those with RV's, to travel. Now in some ways that is not a good thing. High fuel prices were finally sending a a message that we need to find alternative fuels. Now human nature will again put that on the back burner, postponing the inevitable pain to a later date. When the economy improves, fuel will once again start to rise.
One day the RV lifestyle may disappear, but IMO, it will not be in the next 30 years.
Paul Beddows
Past President
North American Truck Camper Owners Association
www.natcoa.org
Why is it that ALL the Anonymous said... post are so negative towards you?? Are they ALL AFRAID to put their names to their comment. I agree with you whole heartidly. Keep up the good work.
I believe that once we have the "chosen" administration in Washington, the press will inform us how wise spending is and the Banks that have amassed all the cash will loan and this "recession" will go the way of the $4.25 gasoline.
Remember how New Orleans was destroyed? I just got home yesterday from the best time I've ever had in "The Big Easy".
Nothing stays the same and this too shall pass.
Ovepriced and badly built RVs and thier manufacturers wiil die and deservedly so! They have churned out crap for too long and now the buyers arent so gullible. Over priced chain camping "resorts" will die as people are tired of paying $30-40 a night to stay in a tightly squeezed "mobile slum" where they cannot even have a campfire. Peope that actually enjoy camping will continue to use national parks and forests and state parks where their smaller, reasonable sized, RVs fit nicely. We went all the way to Nova Scotia from MS this summer despite the gas prices pulling a 29 ft 1 slide 5th wheel. We stayed in state and national parks with beautiful campgrounds and only twice paid above $30. Campers will survive and continue their hobby and hopefully the manufacturers that last will be those who produce a product worth the suddenly scarcer dollars of their customers. The amount of shoddy workmanship and defects would have eventully killed the goos that laid the golden egg anyway now the processis accelerated.
You would be "professionally negligent" if you "did not tell the truth"? Who made you the final arbiter of "the truth"?
This article is a co-mingling of facts and seemingly bitter personal opinions; not the gospel, not the result of clairvoyant visions, just personal opinions.
This is what the media does in every crisis--they make things worse because they hold so much power over public opinion. If you tell enough people often enough that the sky is falling and they should stop spending, eventually a significant number will do just that. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Well, I'm not buying it. But, hey, that's just my opinion.
Well, "Professor of RVing" you better be looking for work, because if you're right, you're out of work too.
This is the most ridiculous pile of hooey I've read in a long time. There are hundreds of thousands of people who love RVing and the RV lifestyle. They're all just going to park it and play Monopoly? They're going to let the rigs rot in the storage lot? Right...
"The worst catastrophe in economic history"? Do tell, Mr. Economist... Why? What signs lead you to believe this is any worse than any of the last 4 recessions? There are Nobel Prize winning economists who say this too shall pass.
I strongly suggest you all just get a paper bag, place it over your nose and mouth and breathe deeply. We'll be fine.
Yes, companies will die. They probably should. But the industry vanish from the face of the planet as if it was all just a bad dream from an old episode of "Dallas"? Nope. Not a chance.
What do you expect from a self-appointed "professor" who thinks VERY highly of himself?
As an RV dealer of 35+ years, the "Professor" is absolutely spot on. I've spent the last 10 years really studying our economic system and I can tell you that what we are falling into is not something that will go away in a year or two - this is something much worse and far worse than anything the RV industry has seen since I started in 1972. There is no visible profit motive for any manufacturer on the horizon - nobody knows how long this will last and even those that "can" survive this are not likely to be willing to bleed cash for years just to be a "survivor". Some dealers will survive - as parts and service centers, but it will likely be smaller dealers with tightly controlled operating expenses. The big dealers are road kill - they cannot generate enough revenue to cover the overhead that large operations require. RV parks are like dealers - it all comes down to who can operate with lower revenues and still pay costs. With dealers, parks and manufacturers, anyone with significant debt is dead meat. Gas prices are a non-factor right now. Even with gas at $4 a gallon there was business. Now gas could be free and you couldn't give away most RVs.
First off, I feel camping is far from dead. It will come back. I read Linda & Robert's comments and once again someone decided to bash Bush for the worlds problems. AS far as their comments, there is plenty of blame to go around. Everyone thinks one person ruined the world. Many people including Bush and McCain along with Democrats forwarned about this. People used the race card to shut them up. In 2006, a group of Dems & Republicans went to Barney Franks and he laughed at them. His rich partner was making big money from the situation. Study the facts before blaming Bush.
To Anonymous that wrote:
"you are an idiot. You're the same as the people that said gas will be $8/ gal. History repeats itself, it will come back. Try educating yourself. Although, most people are entertained by idiots like you"
I hate to tell you this, but YOU are the IDIOT and all the other people who left comments, for the vast majority are the logical and intelligent ones. However, I have to say that ANYONE who thinks their pensions are "SECURE" hasn't noticed the financial institutions that have gone belly-up. It's nieve to think "IT CAN'T HAPPEN TO ME".
I think this is entirely premature and a self-fufiling prophecy. RV industry is dead? I don't think so! Struggling - yes. Just when everyone talks about selling, it seems to me there are opportunities to buy. I can barely read this stuff...I am not ready to jump on that doomsday bandwagon.
www.warnerrvnews.blogspot.com
This is like reading the wall street journal (I don't capitalize yellow rags). Most of the comments I read in the various RV blogs and this newsletter are the most negative, paranoid and depressing comments. Just like what is printed in the wsj. Everyone wants to preach the "self-fulfilling" prophecy. If enough people preach an attitude, such as failure, then others take up the idea that it will happen to them and therefore won't try, buy or go out. Certainly, the RV industry needs to clean up their act. Better quality control, reasonable and competent service commitments and lines of products that meet the public demand. Currently, this is only partially true. I must say this: I was laid off three times, the company declared bankruptcy and was taken over by another. After ten years, I got to start over at the bottom of the ladder again. With perserverance and continued hard work, I came out OK. The AMERICAN IDEAL is one of optimism, perserverance and hard work. What went down goes back up
If you are only half right, the RV industry is in trouble. And I believe you are half right.
When the economy was in trouble in 1981 82 and interest rates went to 22% in Canada I bought a 33 foot Diplomat (knockoff of an Apollo with a 440-IV) and a 37 foot sailboat.
26 years later they are both paid for and at 66 i intend to use them as needed. Both of those manufacturers went out of business but lots of people can fix them when needed. If it gets really bad, i will sell the house and live in a paid for boat or motorhome.
However, with the prices down so much, i think it might just be time to go for a 40 ft MH and a 42 foot SB, (maybe three slideouts)
With a Motorhome, you do not have to go far and with a Sailboat, you can be on the water with little fuel usage. Let's see now, summer sailing in the Gulf Islands and San Juans and winters in Mexico in the MH. Oh yes, am really intrigued with a couple of Diesel motorhomes i have seen with their own bio-diesel manufacturing capabilities on board. Sounds really good to me.
see story of one I tried to buy on eBay at
http://www.usworkvisas.net/CEN-TAPEDE/centapede-us/Week-of-Mon-20080901/000209.html
Sounds okay to me.
taxman@centa.com
I read Jim's report last year, and agreed with him. In January, I sold my Roadtrek. I do miss it, but I just could not afford to keep camping. I do hope the industry can survive, but I do have my doubts.
Wow there are a lot of smart comments here, and a lot of not-so-smart comments here. A lot of people need to wake up! Start reading some good economy blogs and check out some youtube videos on all of this.
Jim, I agree! I am afraid that the citizens of the USA are in deep trouble and our government spending money they do not have to save something that should not be saved will only place all of us into bankruptcy.
The RV industry, like the auto industry has caused most of their problems on themselves. Building junk and charging high prices for years while giving such poor service to the customers that did make a purchase is coming back to hit them in the face.
I for one would like to look Mr. Swingleman (Spelling?) of Winnebago straight in the face now and relate to him that " I could purchase a new RV right now and pay cash for it, however I will not do this especially if it is made by Winnebago.
What goes around comes around.
Jim
I don't know if Jim is right on the money or not. I have no clue as to what the future may hold for
fellow RV owners either. All I know is that my husband's flooring business has slowed down to the point where he's lucky to have maybe 2 jobs a week and he's been delivering pizza's just to make a few dollars for the bills. We have a Class A motorhome-paid for in full, TG! It's a 2001 but we've kept it up in great condition. This past summer we went to campgrounds close to home for an occasional week or weekend. We may not be able to go camping in 2009, depending on whether things pick up for us or not. But I'll tell ya this. We escaped foreclosure on our home a few times and we end up right back at square one when my husband loses work. If there's no work, there's no money for the mgt pmts. But with the grace of God, if the worst should ever happen and we lose our home, at least we'll have our RV. Worst case we'll go rent a spot somewhere for our motorhome. I'm sure it'll be cheaper than what we're paying now anyhow to our Mgt Co, which incidentally robs us without a gun. They're crooks. It's despicable what hard working slobs like us have to endure at the hands of these creepy mortgage companies. So Yeah, I'm being hopeful and grateful that I DO have my Dinosaur of a beast 34' <10mi. to the gallon> RV.
Jim Twamley.
So, do you think we (as in taxpayer) should bail out the Big Three this time?
Personally, I'd not bail anyone out, if I messed up I'd have to pay the consequences. And the executives would have to loose all their golden parachutes for the companies to get anything. Reward for malfeasance is wrong.
As for RV's and vehicles I've been traveling from show to show and the only requirement I've had is get 50 mpg and I'll buy it. Call me when you do. With my SDF250 I get better miles than a gas machine So I'll not trade it in.
The only problem any one has is being over extended.
I was going to retire at 55. But my 401 took a 100K hit. Thanks to short sighted speculators. Don't buy more than you can pay for and you'll be ok.
I have a 39ft Jayco at my country place and I have resorted to using it mostly as my house up there. When Ike when through I was able to stablize by attaching the truck for weight, had the gas, propane ready as I left galveston to go north I had the f250 loaded.
I'd like to get a class c in the 28ft range that is light weight and hybrid. Personally prefer desiel as the engines last longer usually. Roadtreks are a tad small but the Fleetwoods etc had been a tad too large and heavy. There is nothing in here that I haven mentioned to dealers in the 90's. So I'm not surprise that dealerships are having trouble as they aren't delivering what a lot of us want.
To James Blake.
"The RV industry, like the auto industry has caused most of their problems on themselves. Building junk and charging high prices for years while giving such poor service to the customers that did make a purchase is coming back to hit them in the face."
You obviously have had some of the same experiences as I.
My problem has always been to purchase from the "big name" or most popular manufacturers thinking I would get a quality product.
Well, for the RV type I prefer, picking by brand name is no guaranty of quality. I have purchased Fleetwood and Keystone so far and have had nothing but problems.
When taking them in for repairs, warranty or not, the only authorized repair nearest to my home (60 miles) is so non-quality, I have decided to make all of my own repairs whether in warranty or not.
For my modest needs in an RV, there is just no real quality out there as I know it. It sems that the only "quality" one can get is to purchase only the most expensive rigs - and even those are not immune to costly failures.
The RV (and auto) industry may indeed fail due only to financial problems and consumer dis-interest, but they need to "fail" due to lack of quality.
They have survived up to now with their bad quality because people buy emotionally or because first time buyers have been duped by slick sales and marketing schemes.
First time buyers are too uneducated to know what to look for - most do not make a thorough inspection of their puchase becase of that.
I personally hope all but the best operated, with the best quality, RV and auto makers take a dive. I'm sick of the crap coming out of Michigan and Indiana.
Congress is once more leaning toward helping the businesses and overlooking the taxpayer.
I didn't know the RVIA was offering a PhD program now.
The RV industry is struggling just like every other industry right now. However, it's uninformed people with inflated egos calling themselves "professors" preaching doom and gloom that are keeping people at home.
We in the industry don't sell RV's...we sell vacations, family memories, peace of mind, and numerous other FUN times; people need this now more than anything.
The RV industry skyrocketed after 9/11. Why...because consumers wanted more memories, more meaningful times, more time with those they love.
Perhaps you should turn off the TV and quit reading the newspaper and get out and enjoy life.
Are times tough...YES. Will the industry disappear...NO. I do agree the industry will never be the same as it was 12 months ago.
When it's good, it's never as good as it seems. When it's bad, it's never as bad as it seems. Restructuring yes. Pain, yes. Death, no. "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine....."
Weaker manufacturers and dealers closing? Sure. Marginal parks closing? Possibly. But it is still difficult to get into most parks without reservations well in advance. Maybe the decreased market will finally make it possible to travel without having to plan a year in advance, or deal with overcrowded parks full of obnoxious campers, or end up in the only site left - in the middle of a giant mud puddle or too small to open slides or awnings. Maybe camping is decreased in some areas of the country, but everywhere we have gone is still busy, just with fewer new RVs than before.
I think the Oil Companies are trying to reduce their profits until the end of the year to avoid "windfall" profits. (Even so, the public will being screaming for the government to punish them severely. Even nationalization is not out of the question.) Look for gasoline prices to start rising again after the first of the year.
RE anonymous messages, it's nearly impossible for me, and I suspect a lot of others, to get the "google/blogger" option to work. Also, all the advice I've heard about posting on the web, says to give out as little personal information as possible. There are some real nut cases who might Cyber-stalk or physically stalk you, when you thought you were just exercising your right to free speech.
I believe the rv industry will not succomb at all. financial markets as well as gobal economies are inherent in cyclic design. We are approaching bottom of the cycle. The first bit of climb out is usually the worst but the one that is the most oportunistic. Your Professor status is usually resigned to those who have a doctorate in their chosen field and some time honored validation process has ocurred. Opinions are like armpits eventually there is some sort of stink.
There are a lot of economic factors that are overlooked in this rant...I mean blog. First and foremost is the effect natural disasters are now having on the RV industry. The governor of Texas is now asking FEMA for $300 million in housing for IKE victims. This, he is hoping, will come in the form of manufactured homes, mobile homes and travel trailers. On top of that FEMA is already bidding out 50 units a month from 5 RV manufacturers for the next 5 years.
The next issue is gas, which was suppose to ruin the RV industry. Everyday I looked at the RV news in the past year it was riddled with warnings of industry failure due to $5 gas. Well...look at gas now. The problem with this argument in the first place was that people didn't stop buying RVs, they just shortened the amount they traveled. With gas back down we will see the crowds of people at campgrounds we all became accustomed to a couple years ago. Also, get used to the phrase "hybrid motor home", because it is a reality and the California yuppies are going to eat them up.
With the arguments I presented the only hold back I can see is the credit crunch. This I will admit is a huge hurdle and will take some time to alleviate. Many RV industry leaders have been writing letters and lobbying to get creditors to ease up a little bit. Hopefully with some help from them we will start see a travel trailer or two leave the lots again.
With all that said, here is my prediction. The RV industry will continue to struggle through 2009, yet will stay afloat. Manufacturers will continue to drop of the map, but their market share will get picked up by one that is still strong. It will weed out some of the guys with huge debt and small market shares (*cough*...Weekend Warrior...*cough*). The few that will survive will strike it rich during 2010, because demand will be back and market shares for the few will be huge. This will include the Warren Buffett owned Forest River and Coachmen RV. Expect the guys manufacturing in the Northwest to do strong. As they continue to move units into Canada. Finally, I predict this Jim Twamley guy to lose his title as "professor of the RV industry" and we will probably never hear his name again.
Extinct...you idiot.
To all of you who agree with this, how about you go out and burn your RV's right now or run them off a cliff and get it over-with! May as well...RV'ing is dead and your RV is worthless. Come on people! RV'ing is not going to die. In hard times people give up a lot of things but almost never their recreation. It's the only thing they have to escape the hard times and enjoy life. We may not go as much, but we will still go. So get out there and enjoy what you have. Why do you think they call them Recreational Vehicles! It's your chice to let your RV'ing live or die...As for me, I'm gonna take a run down to the ocean this weekend and chase the wife around the motorhome.
WOW! I just bought my first RV and it looks like I'll be traveling all alone out there with no place to go and no where to stay. That makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.
I feel like many of you that this kind of negitive reporting is a major problem in this country. All the doom sayers contribute to the attitude that this country is in the dump station because it is very hard to find balanced reporting. You have to dig for it and many will take what this guy is saying for gospil without bothering to find a counterpoint.
This counrty is in for a CHANGE, not DOOMED. RVing is in for a change, not doomed.
Wikipedia definition of journalist:
A journalist (also called a newspaperman) is a person who practices journalism, the gathering and dissemination of information about current events, trends, issues, and people while striving for non-bias viewpoint.
Where's the non-bias viewpoint Jim? Are you published anywhere else besides this blog? Are you really a journalist for the RV beat? If so based on your predictions you better find another industry to write for, since according to you this one is going away for good! Meanwhile we'll be out enjoying our RV.
Listen, I don't know your "Professor" credentials, but would you be willing to put your "money where your mouth is?" Next year, show up at the 2009 National RV show and tell all in attendance how your random rant posted at 3 in the morning was ignorant and misguided. Appologize, give up your self proclaimed title, drop this blog and disapper into whatever horrible place you come from. You'd probably be doing yourself a favor. No one would be able to hear your ingorance anymore.
In economics we learned that a recession is three consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Unless I am mistaken we just had our first month of negative GDP in October or September. So for you to say that we have been in a recession since December of 2007 is a big strike against your credibility in my book. It is easy to be a pessimist. However, the moral of the story here is to not be laden with debt. Whether you are a big company or just a full time RVer.
I've read Jim's writing for several years now, enjoying and learning from his work. He is a voice that has been positive and strong in advocating for RVing for more than just recent years, and a lot longer than, I suspect, most of his detractors have been alive. His views have obviously excited great discussion, but aren't personal or insulting. As a real professor, I acknowledge the honorary title of Professor of RVing and look forward to many more years of his insightful and useful writing.
The era we knew is over, but it’s also not quite the end times yet. We will move to more of a “ euro “ style of rig, smaller, better ,faster. But in the event the great depression part II is on us, I guess I won’t have to worry about making my monthly camper payments.
It's people like you that contribute to the decline of our economy with ideas like that Jim. It almost sounds as though your happy the RV industry is hurting just so you can say that you were right. Please tell me how any industry could survive if everyone came in demanding a 40% discount on already discounted prices? How could that possibly be a good thing?
Yeah, I can see that doom is definitely upon the RV industry.
That said, I would HIGHLY recommend any new buyers purchasing a class C RV. If the RV manufacturers do go out of business, at least you can buy driveline parts from autozone, and can improvise parts from Home Depot for the house part.
Some people may think RV's are excessive, but I dont see that as the case when you live in one. They are prolly a very good decision if youre single and need to find a job; after all, all you need to do is drive your home where work is. I guess if doomsday arrives you can park it in the boonies and at least you have a roof over your head.
Post a Comment