The lead story in today’s RVtravel.com newsletter is about the demise of National RV. National RV makes the motorhome brands Surfside, Pacifica, Tropi-Cal, Dolphin, Sea Breeze and Tradewinds.
Friday they threw in the towel and called it quits laying off 600 workers. This is just the tip of the iceberg because all RV manufacturers with publicly traded stock showed serious declines for 2007. Boat manufacturing is suffering with huge sales losses, Harley Davidson motorcycles just laid off hundreds of workers last week. Behemoth boat maker Brunswick makers of Bayliner boats and Mercury marine engines is cutting jobs based on a year and a half of profit loses. Chairman and CEO Dustan McCoy told Bloomberg reporters that this year is ``shaping up'' to be the weakest for the U.S. marine industry since 1965. This is significant because the recreational vehicle industry which in the broad spectrum includes boats, RVs, motorcycles, and camping equipment manufacturers is suffering. Historically, when boat manufacturing declines it is a signal that the overall economy is headed for the skids. The Consumer Confidence Index has been in a nose dive since summer (usually a good sales time for RVs and boats) and shows no sign of changing. The U.S. consumer has a negative savings rate and his credit cards are tapped out.
Oil is near $100 dollars a barrel (read higher prices at the pump) and real inflation is on the rise (regardless of what unreliable government statistics say). All this spells DANGER for the RV industry. Expect to see more RV manufactures lay off employees, shut down plants and go out of business this next year. The question is who will be the next to go?
On the bright side, this means you should be able to negotiate a good deal on an RV during the coming year. With my fingers on the pulse of the RV industry - Jim Twamley, Professor of RVing
Friday they threw in the towel and called it quits laying off 600 workers. This is just the tip of the iceberg because all RV manufacturers with publicly traded stock showed serious declines for 2007. Boat manufacturing is suffering with huge sales losses, Harley Davidson motorcycles just laid off hundreds of workers last week. Behemoth boat maker Brunswick makers of Bayliner boats and Mercury marine engines is cutting jobs based on a year and a half of profit loses. Chairman and CEO Dustan McCoy told Bloomberg reporters that this year is ``shaping up'' to be the weakest for the U.S. marine industry since 1965. This is significant because the recreational vehicle industry which in the broad spectrum includes boats, RVs, motorcycles, and camping equipment manufacturers is suffering. Historically, when boat manufacturing declines it is a signal that the overall economy is headed for the skids. The Consumer Confidence Index has been in a nose dive since summer (usually a good sales time for RVs and boats) and shows no sign of changing. The U.S. consumer has a negative savings rate and his credit cards are tapped out. 
Oil is near $100 dollars a barrel (read higher prices at the pump) and real inflation is on the rise (regardless of what unreliable government statistics say). All this spells DANGER for the RV industry. Expect to see more RV manufactures lay off employees, shut down plants and go out of business this next year. The question is who will be the next to go?
On the bright side, this means you should be able to negotiate a good deal on an RV during the coming year. With my fingers on the pulse of the RV industry - Jim Twamley, Professor of RVing
15 comments:
We own a Sea View manufactured by National RV. We love it. We are sad to hear of NRV closing their doors.
It will be interesting in the coming months/years to see what companies merge. And see the quality and variety of RV's they produce.
Don't feel sorry for a company that lost $80 million of other people's money since 2002. While they got paid, other people lost their money. They should have closed 4 years ago.
Why does a company in a nose dive think some miracle will happen if they keep doing the same thing year after year?
This is only the tip of the iceberg. Motorhomes have been getting bigger, longer, heavier and no one seems to realize that North America is sliding into a recession. Anyone who has studied Socionomics will tell you that the writing has been on the wall for the past 7 years. dah!
Scary stuff Jim.
But at least for us, as fulltime RVers of working age, if this country does go into a huge recession, at least we can take our home to wherever the jobs may be. We love our big ol' RV!
I just read that Country Coach laid off 400 of its 1500 workers. "Taryl
Perry, executive director of the Junction City-Harrisburg Chamber of
Commerce, said one man came in this week and said he was one of 400
workers put out of work." Country Coach is located in Junction City, Oregon and was purchased back from National RV recently.
Your initial blog regarding the next to fall has a picture of Monaco Coach. Monaco posted a profit in every quarter over the last 8 years except one. The most recent quarter Monaco posted a profit. As of the last Stats Survey information (September) YTD Monaco has increased their market share from 15.5% to 16.1% in class A sales. They have been paying dividends to their share holders. If you wanted to include a picture of the possible next to fall it might have been more appropriate to show Country Coach, Coachmen or Fleetwood, who was recently listed as one of the worst stocks to hold.
Here is a human interest update on Country Coach from the Editor's Mail Bag at newspaper The Register-Guard dated December 8, 2007. Title: Layoffs lacked compassion
The article about the layoff at Country Coach quotes spokesman Matt Howard as saying, “We just need to make sure we stay healthy” (Register-Guard, Dec. 1).
My husband was one who lost his job without notice on the Monday after Thanksgiving, following previous attempts by his department to reassure employees and counteract rumors of financial trouble.
On the Monday after Thanksgiving, he was notified of an indefinite layoff and told that he was eligible for rehire (how reassuring). He also received a COBRA notice stating we would either lose our insurance coverage in four days or have to pay $720 per month starting Dec. 1.
Of course, he should get that small weekly check from unemployment after the first week, none of which we will likely see before Christmas. I guess our options are that we can either forgo the luxuries of food and warmth or go to the hospital emergency room for medical care. Never mind the mortgage payment, taking care of ailing parents or helping others in need.
We understand that business decisions need to be made, but a company can still do so with integrity and compassion. There was no reason that employees who lost their jobs could not have been given some indication ahead of time.
I am sure that those of us who face the holiday season unemployed and uninsured will feel comforted by the fact that the company will remain “healthy.” Merry Christmas to all those highly paid vice presidents at Country Coach.
Karen Marie
Eugene
Hey Anonymous from Dec 4. The photo of Monaco Coach Corporation was just a random grab from my personal photo file (I try to use only photos I've taken for my reporting - that way I avoid tacky copyright infringement issues). But speaking of tacky, your analysis of the stock status of Monaco Coach Corp (NYSE) failed to tell us the Dividend was 0.06 not exactly anything to write home about. Besides not identifying yourself, you also failed to tell us the 52 week high (2/15/2007) was $17.95 a share and just last week (12/4/2007) it was down to $8.24 per share cut in half and then some. Wow! Oh Boy! (yeah) National RV, now officially in chapter 11 was reporting great stats back in 2005 now look where they are. But I appreciate the dialog and thanks for reading the blog. Jim Twamley
would you buy a national RV now?
dealers are giving great deals --- (5 years extended warranty and low prices) on them without having the factory 1 year warranty
RV buyer
I Noticed that there was no mention of National RV also letting go all workers in there repair shop in Lakeland Fl. Also with no notice.
I have a National Tradewinds and it has been a good one. Now where can I get parts for it that were made by National. I still have Freightliner, Allison and Cat but what about basement doors etc.
James Howard
I just ran across Jim Twamley blog. I was doing some random searchs on the soundness of some current rv manufacturers. Just have to say how refreshing to read Jim's comments. So refreshing to hear an honest assessment of the rv industry without the usual fluff. The info that I have read regarding National, is that it their troubles started with delamination issues , caused by quality control problems, with a third party supplier. Thanks again Jim for opening up honest and open commentary on the RV industry.
Doug
I OWN A 2005 NATIONAL SEA BREEZE AND I LOVE IT,I HAVE HAD NO PROBLEMS WITH IT.I'AM SAD TO HEAR ABOUT NATIONAL RV CLOSING BECAUSE I THINK THEY BUILD THE BEST MOTORHOME ON THE MARKET FOR THE PRICE.THE QUALITY IS EXCELLENT COMPARED TO OTHER MANUFACTURERS.I HOPE NATIONAL RV CORRECTS THEIR FINANCIAL PROBLEMS AND HAS A COMEBACK BECAUSE I WOULD BUY ANOTHER NATIONAL RV.
Sad to hear of their closing. We have a 2005 Seabreeze LX and enjoy it a lot. A few weeks before they closed, I called about possible replacement of a basement cabinet door. I was told that the fibreglass work had all been farmed out to a sub, and they had all the molds that the factory used. I'm trying to find the name, and if I do, I'll post it on this site.
High Cost of Fuel
The RV industry needs to get behind bio fuel and bio diesel to help reduce the cost of fuel.
If the American farmer and farm coops can develop an ethanol industry to support farmers and farm products then the RV industry and truckers can support a bio diesel induistry.
America has gone too long with only one source of fuel. That dependency on oil and the oil cartels has us sending our dollars over seas. We need to develop an American fuel industry that will compete with oil on price and at the pump. If there is a little competition and an American source for the fuel we would find ourselves with Americans producing an American fuel for American consumers.
The RV industry needs to get together with the trucking industry and support bio diesel thru investments, purchase of the fuel and the development of distribution networks.
Ken Svitko
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